For clients
| Time (GMT +1) | Currency | Economic impact | Event | Prev. | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 00:49 | NZD | low | FPI m/m | 1.3% | | 0.6% | FF Alert: Source released data 4 minutes later than scheduled;
Measures: Change in the price of food and food services purchased by households;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release: Sep 11, 2008
Why Traders Care: Although food is among the most volatile consumer price components, this indicator garners some attention because New Zealand's major inflation data is released on a quarterly basis;
Acronyms: Food Price Index (FPI);
Source. | | 08:00 | JPY | medium | BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks | | | | Speaker: BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa;
Description: Due to speak to business leaders, in Osaka;
Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
Frequency: Succeeded Toshihiko Fukui in April 2008;
FF Notes: Volatility is sometimes experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues;
Why Traders Care: As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has important influence over the nation's currency value. Traders scrutinize his speeches as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy and interest rate shifts;
Acronyms: Bank of Japan (BOJ);
Source. | | 16:00 | USD | high | Existing Home Sales | 4.86M | 4.92M | 4.86M | Measures: Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, about 25 days after the month ends;
Next Release: Sep 24, 2008
FF Notes: While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). Existing homes make up the majority of total sales and therefore tend to have more impact than New Home Sales;
Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called: Home Resales;
Source. |
| Time (GMT +1) | Currency | Economic impact | Event | Prev. | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 00:45 | NZD | high | Trade Balance | -0.22B | -0.53B | -0.78B | Measures: Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release: Sep 28, 2008
FF Notes: A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported;
Why Traders Care: Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers;
Also Called: Overseas Merchandise Trade;
Source. | | 01:50 | JPY | low | CSPI y/y | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | Measures: Change in the price of services purchased by corporations;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, about 25 days after the month ends;
Next Release: Sep 25, 2008
Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when corporations pay more for services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer;
Acronyms: Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI);
Source. | | 05:00 | NZD | high | RBNZ Inflation Expectations q/q | 2.9% | | 2.9% | | The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Inflation Expectations measures the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expectations for the next two years among business managers. Source. | | 08:00 | EUR | medium | German Consumer Confidence | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | Measures the mood of consumers in regard to economic conditions. The reading is derived from a monthly survey that asks respondents to evaluate the prospects for the economy in the future. GfK, a leading German market research company, publishes this indicator monthly.
Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism. When consumers are optimistic they tend to purchase more goods and services, which stimulates the economy. Source. | | 08:00 | EUR | low | German Final GDP q/q | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | Measures: Change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released quarterly, about 55 days after the quarter ends;
Next Release: Nov 25, 2008
FF Notes: The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of GDP released about 10 days apart - Preliminary and Final. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;
Acronyms: Gross Domestic Product (GDP);
Source. | | 10:00 | CHF | medium | Consumption Indicator | 2.246 | | 2.246 | Measures the total amount spent by consumers on goods and services.
UBS publishes this indicator up to three months before official statistics. Source. | | 10:00 | EUR | high | German Ifo Business Climate Index | 97.5 | 97.1 | 97.5 | | The Information and Forschung (Ifo) Business Climate Index measures the mood of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail. The index is derived from a monthly survey of over 7,000 firms where respondents are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. Source. | | 10:00 | EUR | medium | German Ifo Business Expectations Index | 90.0 | 90.5 | 90.0 | | The Information and Forschung (Ifo) Business Expectations Index measures the mood of firms in regard to future expectations for the economy. Source. | | 10:30 | GBP | medium | BBA Mortgage Approvals | 21.1K | | 21.1K | Measures: Number of new mortgages approved by BBA-represented banks during the previous month;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, about 25 days after the month ends;
FF Notes: The BBA represents major banks that make up around 70% of total UK mortgage lending;
Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of demand in the housing market – most homes are mortgaged, so it provides an excellent gauge of how many qualified buyers are entering the market;
Acronyms: British Bankers' Association (BBA);
Source. | | 15:00 | USD | low | S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y | -15.8% | -16.2% | -15.8% | Measures: Change in the selling price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, about 60 days after the month ends;
Next Release: Sep 30, 2008
Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because high prices attract investors and spur industry activity;
Acronyms: Standard & Poor's (S&P), Case-Shiller (CS), House Price Index (HPI);
Source. | | 16:00 | USD | high | CB Consumer Confidence Index | 51.9 | 53.0 | 51.9 | Measures: Level of a composite index based on surveyed households;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, on the last Tuesday of the current month;
Next Release: Sep 30, 2008
Why Traders Care: Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Derived Via: Survey of about 5,000 households which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions including labor availability, business conditions, and overall economic situation;
Acronyms: The Conference Board (CB);
Source. | | 16:00 | USD | high | New Home Sales | 530K | 530K | 530K | Measures: Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, about 25 days after the month ends;
Next Release: Sep 25, 2008
FF Notes: While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). Tends to have more impact when it's released ahead of Existing Home Sales because the reports are tightly correlated;
Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a new home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, furniture and appliances are purchased for the home, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Source. | | 16:00 | USD | low | HPI m/m | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.3% | Measures: Change in the purchase price of homes with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, about 55 days after the month ends;
Next Release: Sep 23, 2008
FF Notes: Source began m/m frequency in Mar 2008;
Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because high prices attract investors and spur industry activity;
Acronyms: House Price Index (HPI), Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO);
Source. | | 16:00 | USD | low | Richmond Manufacturing Index | -16 | -10 | -16 | Measures: Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers in Richmond;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, on the fourth Tuesday of the current month;
Next Release: Sep 23, 2008
FF Notes: Above 0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. Tends to have a muted impact because there are earlier regional indicators related to manufacturing conditions;
Derived Via: Survey of about 100 manufacturers in the Richmond area which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including shipments, new orders, and employment;
Also Called: Richmond Fed Index, Manufacturing Activity Index;
Source. | | 18:15 | CAD | medium | Gov Council Member Longworth Speaks | | | | Speaker: BOC Deputy Governor David Longworth;
Description: Due to deliver a speech titled "Work in Progress: The Bank of Canada's Response to the Financial Turbulence" at the Canadian Association for Business Economics, in Kingston;
Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
FF Notes: Governing Council member Apr 2003 - Apr 2010;
Why Traders Care: BOC Governing Council members are responsible for setting the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acronyms: Bank of Canada (BOC);
Source. | | 20:00 | USD | high | FOMC Meeting Minutes | | | | The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the committee's interest rate meeting held about two weeks earlier.
The minutes provide detailed insights regarding the FOMC's stance on monetary policy, so traders carefully comb them for clues regarding future interest rate shifts. Source. |
| Time (GMT +1) | Currency | Economic impact | Event | Prev. | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 03:30 | AUD | medium | Construction Work Done q/q | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | Measures: Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of construction projects completed;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released quarterly, about 60 days after the quarter ends;
Next Release: Nov 26, 2008
FF Notes: This data gives insight into GDP which is released about a week later;
Why Traders Care: It's an important gauge of the construction industry, which has a sizable impact on overall employment and spending;
Source. | | 05:02 | NZD | high | Business Confidence | -43.2 | | -20.5 | FF Alert: Source released data 2 minutes later than scheduled;
| | 08:00 | EUR | low | German Import Prices m/m | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.5% | Measures: Change in the price of goods purchased by importers;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, about 20 days after the month ends;
Next Release: Sep 30, 2008
Why Traders Care: It contributes to inflation for businesses and consumers who rely heavily on imported goods;
Also Called: Import Price Index;
Source. | | 14:30 | USD | high | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m | 2.0% | -0.5% | 2.0% | Derivative of Durable Goods Orders that excludes the Transportation components.
Orders for aircraft occur in periodic burst and can severely distort the underlying trend, so traders tend to focus more on this indicator than the overall Durable Goods Orders. Source. | | 14:30 | USD | medium | Durable Goods Orders m/m | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.8% | Measures the total value of new purchase orders placed with domestic manufacturers for hard goods with a life expectancy of more than 3 years, such as automobiles, computers, appliances, and airplanes.
A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because an increased level of purchase orders signals that manufacturers will be busy in the months to come as they work to fill the orders. Traders watch this indicator closely because of it's predictive abilities. Source. | | 16:35 | USD | medium | Crude Oil Inventories | 9.4M | 0.9M | 9.4M | Measures: Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week;
Usual Effect: No clear effect, there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Frequency: Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends;
Next Release: Sep 4, 2008
FF Notes: While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's massive oil sands;
Why Traders Care: It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods;
Also Called: Crude Stocks, Crude Levels;
Acronyms: Energy Information Administration (EIA);
Source. | | 17:30 | CHF | medium | Gov Board Member Hildebrand Speaks | | | | Speaker: SNB Governing Board Vice-Chairman Philip Hildebrand;
Description: Due to deliver a speech titled "Learning from the Financial Market Crisis" at the award ceremony of Swiss Stock Exchange, in Zurich;
Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
FF Notes: Governing Board member Jul 2003 - Jul 2009;
Why Traders Care: SNB Governing Board members are responsible for setting the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acronyms: Swiss National Bank (SNB);
Source. |
| Time (GMT +1) | Currency | Economic impact | Event | Prev. | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 02:00 | AUD | low | CB Leading Index m/m | -0.1% | | -0.1% | Measures: Change in the level of a composite index based on 7 economic indicators;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, about 55 days after the month ends;
FF Notes: This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously;
Derived Via: Combined reading of 7 economic indicators related to consumer confidence, housing, stock prices, money supply, and interest rate spreads;
Also Called: Leading Indicators;
Acronyms: The Conference Board (CB);
Source. | | 03:30 | AUD | high | Private New Capital Expenditure q/q | -2.5% | 2.0% | -2.5% | Measures the total amount of new capital expenditures by private businesses.
A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because high levels of business investment are a sign of a strong economy. Source. | | 08:00 | GBP | high | Nationwide HPI m/m | -1.7% | -1.5% | -1.7% | Measures: Change in the selling price of homes with mortgages backed by Nationwide;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, around the end of the current month;
Next Release: Sep 30, 2008
FF Notes: This is the UK's second earliest report on housing inflation. The impact tends to be significant but varies from month to month;
Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because high prices attract investors and spur industry activity;
Also Called: Nationwide House Prices;
Acronyms: House Price Index (HPI);
Source. | | 09:15 | CHF | medium | Employment Level | 3.90M | 3.91M | 3.92M | Measures: Number of employed people during the previous quarter;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released quarterly, about 55 days after the quarter ends;
Next Release: Nov 27, 2008
FF Notes: Released very late which tends to mute the impact;
Why Traders Care: Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Source. | | 09:55 | EUR | medium | German Unemployment Change | -20K | -10K | -40K | Measures: Change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month;
Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release: Sep 30, 2008
Why Traders Care: Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor conditions;
Also Called: Jobless People;
Source. | | 10:00 | EUR | low | M3 Money Supply y/y | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.5% | Measures the value of all currency and liquid cash assets held by the public.
A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency although the relationship is not entirely reliable. The commonly held theory is that elevated currency levels spur growth and have an inflationary effect, leading to higher interest rates. However, some believe that an increased supply of money will trigger an equal drop in demand, leading to a lower currency valuation. Source. | | 12:00 | GBP | medium | CBI Distributive Trades Realized | -36 | -30 | -36 | The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Distributive Trades Realized measures the health of the retail sector by asking executives if their firm experienced an increase or decrease in sales compared to a year ago. A positive number indicates that more retailers reported an increase.
A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy. Source. | | 14:30 | CAD | medium | Current Account | 5.6B | 8.0B | 5.6B | Measures: Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, investment income, and current transfers during the previous quarter;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released quarterly, about 60 days after the quarter ends;
Next Release: Nov 28, 2008
FF Notes: The goods portion has no impact because it's a duplicate of the monthly Trade Balance data;
Why Traders Care: It's directly linked to currency demand - a rising surplus indicates that foreigners are buying more of the domestic currency to execute transactions in the country;
Source. | | 14:30 | USD | high | Prelim GDP q/q | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | Measures: Annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released quarterly, about 60 days after the quarter ends;
Next Release: Nov 25, 2008
FF Notes: While this is q/q data, it's reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Advance release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart - Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care: It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health;
Also Called: GDP Second Release;
Acronyms: Gross Domestic Product (GDP);
Source. | | 14:30 | USD | medium | Unemployment Claims | 432K | 427K | 432K | Measures: The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release: Sep 4, 2008
FF Notes: This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care: Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor conditions;
Also Called: Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;
Source. | | 14:30 | USD | low | Prelim GDP Price Index q/q | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | Measures: Annualized change in the price of all goods and services implied by GDP;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released quarterly, about 60 days after the quarter ends;
Next Release: Nov 25, 2008
FF Notes: While this is q/q data, it's reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Advance release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected;
Also Called: GDP Deflator;
Acronyms: Gross Domestic Product (GDP);
Source. | | 16:35 | USD | low | Natural Gas Storage | 88B | 84B | 88B | Measures: Change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week;
Usual Effect: No clear effect, there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Frequency: Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release: Sep 4, 2008
FF Notes: While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's massive oil sands;
Why Traders Care: It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods;
Also Called: Nat Gas Stocks, Nat Gas Inventories;
Acronyms: Energy Information Administration (EIA);
Source. |
| Time (GMT +1) | Currency | Economic impact | Event | Prev. | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 00:45 | NZD | high | Building Consents m/m | -20.1% | | 4.7% | Measures: Change in the number of new building approvals issued;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release: Sep 29, 2008
Why Traders Care: It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining government approval is among the first steps in constructing a new building. Building construction is important because it produces a wide-reaching ripple effect - for example, jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various construction services are purchased by the builder;
Also Called: Building Permits;
Source. | | 01:01 | GBP | medium | GfK Consumer Confidence | -39 | -41 | -39 | Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, on the last business day of the current month;
Next Release: Sep 30, 2008
FF Notes: Above 0 indicates a positive outlook, below indicates a negative outlook;
Why Traders Care: Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Derived Via: Survey of about 2,000 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions including personal financial situation, climate for major purchases, and overall economic situation;
Also Called: GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Barometer;
Source. | | 01:15 | JPY | low | Manufacturing PMI | 47.0 | | 46.9 | Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, on the last business day of the current month;
Next Release: Sep 30, 2008
FF Notes: Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. Full reports are only available to journalists registered with NTC Research;
Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
Derived Via: Survey of about 300 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;
Also Called: Nomura/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI;
Acronyms: Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);
Source. | | 01:30 | JPY | medium | Tokyo Core CPI y/y | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers in Tokyo, excluding fresh food;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, on the last Friday of the current month;
Next Release: Sep 26, 2008
FF Notes: Tokyo is Japan's most populated city and releases CPI data a month ahead of National CPI. This early data is thought to be the most important consumer inflation release, yet it tends to have a relatively muted impact in light of the nation's tame inflation situation;
Why Traders Care: Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;
Also Called: Tokyo CPI Ex Fresh Food;
Acronyms: Consumer Price Index (CPI);
Source. | | 01:30 | JPY | low | National Core CPI y/y | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding fresh food;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, on the last Friday after the month ends;
Next Release: Sep 26, 2008
FF Notes: This data garners much of the media spotlight, but tends to be overshadowed by the Tokyo CPI data which is released a month earlier;
Also Called: Core CPI, National CPI Ex Fresh Food;
Acronyms: Consumer Price Index (CPI);
Source. | | 01:30 | JPY | low | Overall Household Spending y/y | -1.8% | -1.8% | -1.8% | Measures the total amount spent by households on goods and services.
A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because consumer spending is a major driver of the economy, accounting for about half of GDP. Source. | | 01:30 | JPY | low | Unemployment Rate | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | Measures: Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month;
Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release: Sep 30, 2008
FF Notes: Tends to have a muted impact because there are several earlier indicators related to Eurozone labor conditions;
Why Traders Care: Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor conditions;
Also Called: Jobless Rate;
Source. | | 01:50 | JPY | medium | Prelim Industrial Production m/m | -2.2% | -0.5% | 0.9% | Measures: Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release: Sep 30, 2008
FF Notes: There are 2 versions of this indicator released about 15 days apart - Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle, and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings;
Source. | | 01:50 | JPY | medium | Retail Sales y/y | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | Measures: Change in the total value of sales at the retail level;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, about 27 days after the month ends;
Next Release: Sep 30, 2008
Why Traders Care: It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Also Called: Retail Trade;
Source. | | 03:30 | AUD | medium | Private Sector Credit m/m | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | | Measures the total credit provided to the private sector by financial intermediaries. Source. | | 07:00 | JPY | low | Housing Starts y/y | -16.7% | 14.5% | -16.7% | Measures: Change in the number of new residential buildings that began construction;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release: Sep 29, 2008
Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health because building construction produces a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various construction services are purchased by the builder;
Acronyms: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism (MILT);
Source. | | 10:00 | EUR | low | Italian Retail Sales m/m | 0.2% | 0.0% | | Measures: Change in the total value of sales at the retail level;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, about 55 days after the month ends;
Next Release: Sep 24, 2008
Why Traders Care: It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Source. | | 11:00 | EUR | medium | CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 4.0% | 4.0% | | Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, on the last business day of the current month;
Next Release: Sep 30, 2008
FF Notes: Eurostat bases this estimate on energy prices and EU member states that report early CPI data. While the report is narrow and void of line items, it's extremely early and can impact the market;
Why Traders Care: Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;
Acronyms: Consumer Price Index (CPI);
Source. | | 11:00 | EUR | low | Consumer Confidence | -20 | -20 | | Measures the mood of consumers in regard to economic conditions. The reading is derived from a monthly survey that asks respondents to evaluate the prospects for the economy in the future.
Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism. When consumers are optimistic they tend to purchase more goods and services, which stimulates the economy. Source. | | 11:00 | EUR | low | Italian Prelim CPI m/m | 0.5% | 0.1% | | Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, around the end of the current month;
Next Release: Sep 30, 2008
FF Notes: There are 2 versions of CPI released about 25 days apart - Preliminary and Final. The Preliminary release is extremely early but has a muted impact due to Italy's relatively small impact on the Eurozone. The Final is not included for lack of significance;
Acronyms: Consumer Price Index (CPI);
Source. | | 11:00 | EUR | low | Unemployment Rate | 7.3% | 7.3% | | Measures: Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month;
Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release: Oct 1, 2008
FF Notes: Tends to have a muted impact because there are several earlier indicators related to Eurozone labor conditions;
Also Called: Jobless Rate, Eurozone Unemployment;
Source. | | 11:30 | CHF | medium | Leading Index m/m | 0.90 | 0.83 | | Measures overall economic health by combining 25 leading indicators including consumer expectations, housing permits, stock prices, and interest rate spreads.
The index is published monthly by the Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research (KOF), a leading Swiss research group. Source. | | 11:30 | CHF | medium | KOF Economic Barometer | 0.90 | 0.83 | | Measures: Level of a composite index based on 25 economic indicators;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, around the end of the current month;
FF Notes: This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy over the following 6 months. The impact tends to be significant but varies from month to month;
Derived Via: Combined reading of 25 economic indicators related to employment, production, new orders, consumer confidence, housing, stock prices, money supply, and interest rate spreads;
Also Called: KOF Leading Indicators, Konjunkturbarometer;
Source. | | 14:30 | CAD | high | GDP m/m | -0.1% | 0.1% | | Measures: Change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, about 60 days after the month ends;
Next Release: Sep 30, 2008
FF Notes: Canada is unique in that they release fresh GDP data on a monthly basis. A quarterly GDP is also released, however it's merely a summation of the monthly data;
Why Traders Care: It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health;
Acronyms: Gross Domestic Product (GDP);
Source. | | 14:30 | CAD | medium | RMPI m/m | 4.4% | 0.2% | | Measures: Change in the price of raw materials purchased by manufacturers;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release: Sep 30, 2008
Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when manufacturers pay more for goods the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer;
Acronyms: Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI);
Source. | | 14:30 | CAD | low | IPPI m/m | 1.3% | 0.7% | | Measures: Change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release: Sep 30, 2008
FF Notes: This is among the few non-seasonally adjusted numbers reported on the calendar, as it's the primary calculation for this indicator. Only includes goods produced domestically;
Also Called: Factory Gate Prices, Producer Prices;
Acronyms: Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI);
Source. | | 14:30 | USD | medium | Core PCE Price Index m/m | 0.3% | 0.3% | | Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release: Sep 29, 2008
FF Notes: Differs from Core CPI in that it only measures goods and services targeted towards and consumed by individuals. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item which gives important insights into consumer spending behavior. This is rumored to be the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation measure, but CPI is released about 15 days earlier and tends to garner most of the attention;
Acronyms: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Consumer Price Index (CPI);
Source. | | 14:30 | USD | medium | Personal Spending m/m | 0.6% | 0.3% | | Measures the total amount spent by consumers on goods and services.
A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because consumer spending is a major driver of the economy, accounting for about two-thirds of GDP. Source. | | 14:30 | USD | low | Personal Income m/m | 0.1% | -0.1% | | Measures the total amount of income received by individuals.
A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because higher levels of income allow consumers to spend more. Source. | | 15:45 | USD | medium | Chicago PMI | 50.8 | 50.1 | | Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the Chicago area;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, on the last business day of the current month;
Next Release: Sep 29, 2008
FF Notes: Data is given to Kingsbury subscribers 3 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates expansion, below indicates contraction;
Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
Derived Via: Survey of purchasing managers in Chicago which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;
Also Called: Chicago Business Barometer;
Acronyms: Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);
Source. | | 15:55 | USD | medium | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | 61.7 | 62.0 | | Measures: Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, on the last Friday of the current month;
Next Release: Sep 26, 2008
FF Notes: The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this data released about 15 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;
Derived Via: Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions;
Also Called: Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment;
Acronyms: University of Michigan (UoM);
Source. | | 15:55 | USD | low | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations | 4.8% | | | Measures: Percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change during the next 12 months;
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency: Released monthly, on the last Friday of the current month;
Next Release: Sep 26, 2008
FF Notes: The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this data released about 15 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;
Derived Via: Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents where they expect prices to be 12 months in the future;
Acronyms: University of Michigan (UoM);
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